Aon Re Study Takes Aim at Hurricane Analysis

As leading hurricane season forecasting organizations begin issuing updated tropical season forecasts for the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane Season, an analysis by Impact Forecasting LLC, a unit of Aon Re Global, found seasonal outlooks for individual years are generally less accurate than when those individual forecasts are measured cumulatively against actual hurricane activity over periods of five years or longer. According to Impact Forecasting's analysis, tropical season predictions released in May 2007 and 2006 by top hurricane researchers at Colorado State University (CSU), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) overestimated the number of hurricanes and major hurricanes (hurricanes that achieve or exceed Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson Scale) that ultimately would form in the Atlantic and Caribbean oceans. The discrepancies between forecasted activity and actual activity have been attributed to the unanticipated levels of dust and dry air that settled across the region of the Atlantic Ocean where tropical systems and hurricanes tend to develop. When analyzing five years of forecasts for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes, Impact Forecasting found the forecasts have been quite accurate when compared to average season values. The analysis, contained within Aon Re Global's 2007 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report, utilized May forecasts for the Atlantic Hurricane Season issued by Colorado State University, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and TropicalStormRisk.com since 2003. These forecasts were compared to what occurred across the Atlantic and Caribbean basins during single years and within a five-year period. The Aon Re Global 2007 Annual Global Climate and Catastrophe Report is available for download at: http://aon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=63&item=191.