These numbers represent a 6% cut below trend for corn and a 10% cut for soybeans. The USDA reduced their yield estimates in early September from 155 bushels per acre to 152.3, bringing the forecast below trend. Storm Exchange expects that the USDA will continue to lower their estimate as the harvest season continues through the fall.
While the looming threat of a freeze that threatened the crop has diminished, Storm Exchange projects that flood and wind damage caused by Hurricane Ike will suppress both the corn and soybean crops. The late season hurricane damage has further destabilized an already weak crop that has never fully recovered from the severe flooding that occurred throughout the Midwest during the spring 2008 planting season. Storm Exchange estimates that the flood conditions of spring 2008 permanently impacted 10-12% of US corn.
"While the threat of a freeze has decreased, we're still not out of the woods," said Gail Martell, Storm Exchange senior agriculture analyst. "When Ike swept through the Midwest states, it left a trail of damage that we can't absorb after the spring we had. This weather pattern does not bode well for the harvest season."
Using a combination of atmospheric climate trends, advanced computer-driven seasonal prediction models and analog forecasts, Storm Exchange produces their seasonal Weather Risk Outlooks to provide businesses with statistical probabilities of adverse weather conditions on a regional basis. The Storm Exchange Agriculture Weather Risk Outlook for October to December 2008 breaks out corn and soybean yield estimates on an aggregate and state-by-state basis.
For more information on Storm Exchange's state-by-state grain yield estimates, visit www.cropprojections.com.
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