Hurricane Ike Keeps Path Towards Texas

According to catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, Hurricane Ike strengthened after exiting Cuba yesterday, as expected.

As of 11 a.m. EDT Thursday, Sept. 11, maximum sustained winds remain at 100 mph. Ike is a large storm; hurricane force winds currently extend outward up to 115 miles from the center, which is currently moving to the west-northwest at near 10 mph.

“Over the course of the last twelve hours, the storm has been exhibiting not one, but two well-defined areas of maximum winds—one near the eyewall and another in an outer wind band,” according to Dr. Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “Additionally, there has been a pronounced disparity between central pressure and wind data. Reported central pressure—945 mb at 8:00 am—would normally be consistent with a borderline Category 3/4 hurricane, yet both dropsonde and flight-level wind data point to Category 2-level winds. At the same time, wind shear in this part of the Gulf is modest, and an anticyclonic flow at upper levels will assist Ike in maintaining an efficient outflow.”

Forecasters at the NHC currently expect Ike to achieve major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher) prior to landfall. Dr. Dailey continued, “The NHC forecast track now takes Ike just north of some warm eddies in the western Gulf. Ike is being steered to the west-northwest by a strong ridge that extends from the U.S. Southeast to Texas. But that portion of the ridge over Texas is expected to begin to weaken within 48 hours. That should cause Ike to turn to the northwest and north.”

As a result, the NHC’s forecast landfall location has shifted to the north and—unfortunately—closer to the Galveston/Houston area. Such a course would also mean that more offshore platforms and rigs are likely to be affected. According to the Minerals Management Service of the federal government, more than 400 of the 700+ manned production platforms in the Gulf have been, or are being, evacuated.

“Hurricane Ike’s track through the Caribbean and Gulf is somewhat similar to that of the Galveston hurricane of 1900, though the intensity evolution is rather different,” Dr. Dailey commented. “The 1900 event failed even to reach hurricane strength until it entered the Gulf. But once there it intensified rapidly and made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane with wind speeds estimated at 150 mph. AIR estimates that a recurrence of the Galveston hurricane of 1900 could result in insured losses of more than $30 billion. However, the NHC does not anticipate Ike will reach such intensity.”

The largest concentrations of exposure in Texas are along the northern part of the coast, near Houston. In fact, the five northernmost coastal counties, including Houston's Harris County, account for 85% of the total coastal exposure in Texas, which by AIR’s estimate exceeds $890 billion.

Dr. Dailey added, “it is important to point out that there is still considerable uncertainty with respect to both Ike’s intensity at landfall and the landfall location. Even a slight change in either could have a significant impact on potential losses.”