Ike Leaves Cuba, Heads for Central Texas Coast

According to catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, Ike finally exited storm-weary Cuba at around 5 pm EDT Tuesday. As of 11 a.m. EDT, Wednesday, Sept. 10, Hurricane Ike is located about 225 miles west-southwest of Key West, Florida. Maximum sustained winds have increased to 90 mph and the storm is moving to the west-northwest at 8 mph.

“Although Ike was weaker than Gustav when it struck Cuba a week earlier, it raked virtually the entire length of the country, from east to west,” said Dr. Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “In eastern Cuba, where Gustav made its first landfall with winds of 125 mph, Ike damaged or destroyed thousands of poorly constructed homes, toppled trees and leveled fields of sugar cane.”

Tuesday, the storm made a second landfall just south of the capital Havana, after having spent the previous 24 hours hugging Cuba's south coast. Although Havana was spared the worst of Ike's winds, city officials reported the collapse of at least 16 unreinforced masonry buildings from the colonial period, already in a state of advanced disrepair. Streets were left littered with wind-borne debris and broken tree limbs. According to the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite images indicate that Ike's cloud pattern is becoming better organized.

“Gradual reintensification is expected as the center moves over warm eddies of the Loop Current, but the degree of strengthening remains highly uncertain,” continued Dr. Dailey. “A high pressure ridge over the northern Gulf should keep Ike on a generally west-northwest track toward the central coast of Texas, where it is currently forecast to arrive sometime on Saturday.”

Based on AIR’s recent report titled, “The Coastline at Risk,” AIR estimates that the insured value of residential and commercial properties in coastal counties of Texas exceeds $890 billion. However, the distribution of these exposures is far from uniform.

“The largest concentrations are along the northern part of the coast, near Houston,” added Dr. Dailey. “The five northernmost coastal counties, including Houston's Harris County, account for 85% of the total coastal exposure in Texas.”

According to the NHC, Ike is likely to take a more southerly track, away from these most densely populated areas of the coast. Similarly, Ike's forecast track would take it west and south of the primary concentrations of offshore oil and gas platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

Nevertheless, a number of companies, including Mobil Corporation and Royal Dutch Shell have already begun evacuating workers from their posts. Onshore, there are several refineries in Corpus Christi, which is near Ike's forecast landfall location.

AIR continues to monitor the progress of Hurricane Ike closely and will issue updates as warranted by events.