Ike Batters Cuba; Forecast Sees Strengthening

According catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, after crossing Cuba east to west on Monday morning, Hurricane Ike spent the remainder of the day hugging Cuba's south coast.

Although the center remained just offshore, interaction with land disrupted the core and as of 11 am EDT, Tuesday, Sept. 9, Ike is a Category 1 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph, down from 125 mph at landfall.

"The capital Havana, some 50 miles north of Ike's current location, is already experiencing wind gusts of hurricane force, and as long as the center remains over water, which it is likely to do as the storm tracks between the Isle of Youth and the south coast of Havana province, there is some chance for strengthening; ocean heat content is extremely high in this part of the Caribbean," said Dr. Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. "Unfortunately for Cuba, which is still recovering from Hurricane Gustav, Ike looks set to retrace Gustav's path across western Cuba later today." There are reports of heavy damage across the country.

"In Camaguey, Cuba's third largest city, Ike ripped the roofs off of homes and shops, downed trees and utility poles and collapsed warehouses," Dr. Dailey commented. "Tourist hotels on Santa Lucia beach also suffered significant damage, and storm surge flooded resorts on Punta de Ganado beach. Thousands of poorly constructed wood frame homes are reported to have been damaged, and hundreds destroyed."

As many as one million people were evacuated from areas in Ike's projected path—nearly a tenth of Cuba's entire population.

Dr. Dailey continued, "Ike is forecast to exit Cuba and move into the open Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday night. After that, it should move to the northwest for a day or two. However, by Thursday a high pressure ridge over the northern Gulf coast should force Ike on a more westerly track."

The current NHC 5-day forecast track takes Ike to the south coast of Texas by the weekend. This represents a considerable shift to the south from yesterday's forecast track—a shift that illustrates the considerable uncertainty associated with forecasts this far out. The dynamical models are in some disagreement, however, as to just how far south Ike will go, with some taking the storm to the Texas coast between Galveston and Corpus Christi, and others indicating a landfall in Mexico.

Using the reported meteorological parameters and Ike's actual track through the Bahamas, AIR does not expect significant insured losses in the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas.

AIR continues to monitor this storm closely and will issue updates as warranted by events.