Cristobal, Dolly Keep Forecasters Busy

According to catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, Tropical storm Cristobal—the third named tropical storm of the season—brought heavy rain and rough seas to the coast of the Carolinas over the weekend.

“As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, it was located about 190 miles northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving in a northeasterly direction at about 13 mph,” said Dr. Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “Cristobal’s path is more or less parallel to the coast. It is expected to move with increasing speed toward the mid-Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph, with higher gusts.”

Over the weekend, the center of the storm was about 130 miles east of Charleston when it passed by the coast. “Still, it brought gusts of nearly 50 mph and as much as five inches of rain to parts of the drought-stricken Carolinas. Tropical storm warnings and flood advisories were in effect along the coast up to the North Carolina-Virginia state line.”

Dr. Dailey continued, “The National Hurricane Center expects little change in Cristobal's strength as it moves further off the mid-Atlantic coast through today. Its tropical storm force winds, however, extend up to 125 miles, bringing strong winds, an inch more of rain, and three-foot high tides to the coast. Cristobal is forecast to continue north toward southern Nova Scotia, Cape Breton and Newfoundland, bringing rain along the way.”

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Dolly formed about 230 miles southeast of Cozumel, Mexico, on Sunday, July 20.

“At 2:00 a.m. EDT Monday, July 21, Dolly made landfall near Cancun in Mexico’s Quintana Roo state, bringing maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and a central pressure of 1007 mb.,” said Dr. Tim Doggett, senior research scientist at AIR Worldwide. “As a precautionary measure, the governor of Quintana Roo ordered the evacuation of nearby low-lying islands (Banco Chinchorro and Punta Allen). As of 8:00 a.m. EDT, Dolly was about to reemerge into the Gulf of Mexico after crossing the sparsely populated northern tip of Yucatan. Sustained winds remain at 50 mph. Dolly is moving to the west-northwest at near 16 mph.”

Dr. Doggett continued, “The National Hurricane Center expects Dolly to strengthen as it crosses the warm waters of the Gulf, and is currently forecast to reach hurricane status by tomorrow. Where Dolly tracks thereafter is highly uncertain. The NHC's forecast track has Dolly making landfall near the border between Mexico and Texas sometime late Wednesday or early Thursday. Other forecast models, however, indicate that a more northerly landfall location near Corpus Christi is possible. In either case, operations of offshore assets off the Texas coast are likely to be affected.”

Dolly has been drenching the Yucatan with 4 to 6 inches of rainfall. Mudslides in Guatemala buried homes and killed 12 people. Wind damage to insured properties is not expected to be significant.