AIR Tracks TS Fay's Progress Towards Florida

According to catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide, as of 11 a.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Fay—the sixth named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season—was exiting the northern coast of Cuba, about 65 miles east-northeast of Havana and about 70 miles south-southeast of Key West, Florida.

“Maximum sustained winds are now near 60 mph with higher gusts; some strengthening is possible over the next 24 hours,” said Dr. Peter Dailey, director of atmospheric science at AIR Worldwide. “The center of the system is moving to the north-northwest at near 13 mph.” The National Hurricane Center had been tracking the system for much of last week, but failed to find a clearly defined circulation at surface level. It was finally designated a tropical storm on Friday just after moving onshore over the Dominican Republic's south coast.

“Fay brought sustained winds of 45 mph and as much as 8 inches of rain to parts of the Dominican Republic throughout Saturday,” continued Dailey. AIR does not expect significant insured losses from Fay's interaction with the Dominican Republic, where insured properties are dominated by reinforced concrete construction. Fay maintained tropical storm force winds as it crossed into Haiti, where banana crops north of the capital Port-au-Prince were destroyed.

“On Saturday morning, Fay exited Haiti and headed for Cuba, strengthening only slightly as it crossed the Windward Passage. On Sunday, the storm scraped by Cabo Cruz on the southeast of the island with sustained winds of 50 mph and finally made landfall as a tropical storm with 50 mph winds in Matanzas Province in central Cuba just after 2:00 a.m. EDT, August 18,” added Dailey.

According to the NHC, Fay is expected to cross the Florida Keys tonight as a tropical storm and arrive on Florida's west coast—possibly at hurricane strength—near Charlotte Harbor sometime tomorrow afternoon.

Dailey continued, “The NHC currently assigns a near 40% probability to Fay's achieving hurricane status by landfall, and a 7% probability that it will arrive as a Category 2 storm. However, Fay is now moving into an area of moderate wind shear, so intensification is likely to be limited. The forecast landfall location recalls Hurricane Charley, which ravaged the area in 2004. However, Fay is highly unlikely to intensify to Charley's Category 4 status. Further mitigating damage potential, buildings in this part of Florida conform to the Florida Building Code, which means they are designed to withstand peak gusts of 120 to 130 mph. Nevertheless, it is important to note that, as always, there is considerable uncertainty with respect to Fay's future track and intensity.”

According to Dailey, “The dynamical forecast models are in some disagreement with respect to Fay's future course, with forecast landfall locations ranging from Naples in southwest Florida to Panama City on the Panhandle. The extent to which Fay intensifies after exiting Cuba will depend on how long it remains over the warm waters of the Gulf, which in turn depends on what course the storm takes. For a storm with Fay's trajectory, slight changes in track make big differences in landfall location.”

AIR is closely monitoring the progress of Tropical Storm Fay and will provide updates as warranted.