AIR: Calif. Wildfire Losses Between $600M-$800M

Catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide estimates that total insured losses from the Freeway Complex, Sayre and Tea Fires in Southern California will likely range between $600 and $800 million.

These estimates include damage to or destruction of primary structures, their contents, and estimated additional living expenses for residential policies or business interruption for commercial properties. Additionally, AIR will be dispatching a post-disaster survey team to Southern California.

"The actual fire perimeters continue to be refined as more information comes in," explained Dr. Tomas Girnius, Senior Research Scientist at AIR Worldwide. "Similarly, there is some uncertainty with respect to the extent to which fire suppression activities have been fully effective within all three perimeters. While many homes and businesses will have survived, the number of claims is likely to be significantly larger than the number of destroyed structures—although the size of each claim for a slightly damaged home is expected to be small."

Dying winds and mild temperatures helped firefighters control the wildfires that began raging across southern California last weekend. By this morning, Thursday, Nov. 20, two of the three fires are fully contained and the third, already reduced to a slow-moving, smoldering ground fire, is 95% contained.

Since the first of the fires—the Tea Fire—broke out above Santa Barbara last Thursday evening, the fires have destroyed about 1,000 buildings, damaged another 300, burned through nearly 65 square miles of land, and caused the evacuation of more than 50,000 people. On Monday, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger declared a state of emergency in the four counties affected by the fires and President Bush authorized emergency federal aid for the state. Tuesday, the Santa Barbara County Sheriff said the Tea Fire had been accidentally caused by a bonfire built by a group of college students.

"The Southern California Santa Ana winds uncharacteristically blew only intermittently and without much strength in September and October—but beginning last Thursday they arrived with near hurricane-force gusts of 70 mph," said Dr. Girnius. "Conditions in the Los Angeles region were dry and temperatures were high, contributing to the ferocity of the fires."

Fed by the winds, the Sayre Fire, which began Friday, and the Freeway Complex Fire, which began Saturday, together burned through nearly 42,000 acres of land. High temperatures in the region today are in the upper 60’s and 70’s, winds are quiet, and humidity has increased.

However, even as evacuees have begun to return home—many to pick through the charred remains of their belongings—a Fire Weather Watch has been declared for this evening into tomorrow morning for the Santa Ynez Mountains above Santa Barbara and along the south coast of Santa Barbara County.

A new round of gusty, though less intense, northerly Sundowner Winds—the local name for Santa Ana-type winds—are expected to begin again just when the humidity also is expected to fall to critical levels.